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‘Crypto winter is over’ are you hearing this optimism everywhere? That could lead retail traders into two ways, number one is a bull trap set by crypto Whales. Or it could be a legit bullish move where most retail folks becoming buyers.
The impact of the next bull move in the cryptocurrency market would be massive, it could outperform almost everything we’ve seen in the past. Market capital will easily take over 1 trillion dollars. Manipulating such a big market would be quite tough without a central structure. Big whales know that. So crypto winter is over is the exact kind of news these whales want you to believe. Here is the market sentiment, 63% of the traders are bullish. It doesn’t look good. https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/
I can see bear market momentum only in 3days chart (both CME and regular exchange) , It could fall to 4500 zone according to the chart, but that is very unlikely as other time frames suggest.
In the weekly chart, no candle closed above 50 EMA yet. Though momentum is still in the bullish trending zone. 50 EMA is still untouched in the CME weekly chart.
If you follow On Balance volume it is also rising . In the price action chart, Market still need to touch the resistance which is $6150 in crypto exchange and $6450 in CME chart. $6000 plus price is very possible in the coming weeks.
In Daily chart (below) Momentum is bullish and heading towards the resistance. However, CME Bitcoin Futures is just crossing 200 EMA. And in both exchange Bitcoin found support at 21 EMA. There is no sign of bear in the daily chart. And it would be really challenging for the market to cross 6100 as it is the primary resistance zone of the present market. Let’s wait and see. And that is also the line where I’m expecting a manipulation.
Now let’s look into some other incredible facts behind this running medium bull market which most of the people are not seeing.
Bitcoin doing something extraordinary it never did in recent history. Bitcoin Market Cap (left chart) weekly technical chart says it is entering into bullish territory. Which is significant. There is a higher chance of Bitcoin market cap will reach 143 billion if it closed above 100 billion this week and hold it till next week (till May 12). That makes Bitcoin price $8088 (143 billion divided by Bitcoin present supply 17,679,750), if it fails to hold above 100 billion by May 12, it could indicate a bearish move for Bitcoin. But the chart momentum is incredibly in the bullish territory (check stochastic).
Now, I need you to look into the right chart, It’s the Bitcoin dominance Chart. It’s trying to go above the resistance 58.50% with a smaller W pattern inside a massive W. Super bullish. It has 20/50 EMA crossover and above the lower high trendline and heading towards 200 EMA/MA to the 67% dominance zone. It indicates a higher price If Bitcoin reaches 67% dominance zone. Look at the stochastic, it’s also heading towards bullish zone (most likely). We have to wait till May 12 for the confirmation.
Now, remember one very important note which is Most alt-coin will perform worse against Bitcoin when Bitcoin will take control of the market cap. Alt-coin will raise again when Bitcoin reaches the resistance zone and start turning bearish.
Massive transaction of 40,000 Bitcoin like this is very suspicious. You should be concern of incident like this https://whale-alert.io/transaction/bitcoin/68053b924c94b9fa4e9276503ce80b72d34e1ff2677e8d0a72ee25128100bdc9
Should I buy now?
I don’t suggest you go hold naked long right now if you don’t have already. You can long trade in the smaller time frame but I suggest you use Deribit and hedge your position with option. Buying from Resistance zone is a horrible idea. I will be seeking shorting opportunity from $6.1K zone. Everybody will jump Bullish if BTC crosses 6K level as they are waiting for it. What else could be a better opportunity to find short at that price? Your goal shouldn’t be joining in the 90%.
A bear market is far from over, these bullish scenarios are for medium outlook. In macro chart, Bitcoin is just having a little retracement at early of the year. Don’t you believe me? See yearly candle. Find our Macro analysis for Bitcoin which we will update next week.
People ask me one question so often ‘Has Bitcoin Bottomed?’
My simple answer is, it doesn’t matter if Bitcoin Bottomed or not, we will be trading price action, not our personal opinion. It might be important for a long-time investor and they don’t care if bottomed or not, they get into the market with their desire price slowly. They are okay to hold an investment for 5 years without profit. Don’t waste your time to find a bottom unless you are one of them.
There is no way you can identify a bottom unless it happens, all we can do is follow the price action. And present price action is bullish, the price can easily reject the $6100 and fall again towards 3K or even below, it won’t affect you if you follow price action rather than your opinion.
So, stay connected, we will give you an update at least a week early when anything happens.
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