Weekly Forex Analysis and Trade Setups ; Feb 27- March 3rd, 2017
US dollar is mixed against major pairs after ‘fairly soon’ note from FOMC minutes; though we don’t expect any hike at march. Mr. Trump’s speech to congress should offer some more clarity on his future fiscal stimulus.
Let’s look at the trade ideas and their probable setups for this week.
(All charts from FxPro)
Uncertainty of [mks_highlight color=”#eded10″]French elections[/mks_highlight] and pre-election polls would keep EUR volatile. Present price action of EURUSD is between minor resistant 1.06522 to Key support 1.0520.
Our bearish view on EURUSD remains intact.
However, we will be short only if EURUSD price break the 1.04616 by closing reaction towards 1.03657.
A break below 1.03657 would open door towards 1.0206.
We expect at least [mks_highlight color=”#eded10″]20% down[/mks_highlight] at EURUSD this year, as most of the EUR zone nations need cheaper EUR.
More bad data would make GBP weaker against major pairs and a complicated Scotland referendum is unlikely to come.
However, our medium term technical view remains bullish above 1.2794. Cable is hovering between major support 1.23317 to major resistant 1.26734
A break below 1.23317 would push pound even lower towards Key support 1.19858 (Low of Jan 16,2017)
We closed all of our EURGBP short position last week as price action will find another resistant once meets the support trend line (of triangle). EURGBP is bearish below .85718 and next support is .83326.
However, EURGBP making a [mks_highlight color=”#eded10″]triangle[/mks_highlight] in daily chart. We will short again at bearish price action from .85718 or new resistant that is searching for.
AUDUSD is still bullish and searching for a resistant. It has a demand till the key resistant .78338 .
However, we will take short position once we get bearish price action signal from the major resistant .7759. Yellow metal Gold is in resistant area. We will sell on strong bearish price action. Stay tune to get update.
Oil price is higher by the news of extended production cut with original 6 months. A weaker global demand and higher US shale production are the primary threat to the OPEC & Non OPEC agreement.
Next bearish eye of WTI till major support $49.40. However, there is another minor support at $52 which market is respecting.
A break above $55.27 would open door towards another major resistant $58.55
Oil price above $55 would make OPEC and Non OPEC deal complicated as some oil producing nation will increase productions as Iran mentioned last week.
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