Weekly Forex Analysis and Trade Setups ; April 3-7, 2017
The dollar had a bullish week after three consecutive bearish weeks. The dollar index is facing a major resistant now at 100.65. Let’s see how it react to the resistant.
The political undercity in US and EU zone driving safe haven currency Yen and precious metal Gold higher.
Let’s look at the trade ideas and their probable setups for this week.
(All charts from FxPro, you should update according to your broker)
EURUSD was bearish last week and reached a major support 1.0652 before weekly closing. But our medium term view changed to bullish as certain things have changed in EU.
We are getting many headline news from French election, more risk raising as Le Pen getting bad results in recent polls. ECB having more of a hawkish tone recently. Recent EU Economic data reading are almost positive. Even trump administration wants higher EUR.
We should see higher EUR If price can hold above the support 1.06522. We are having higher high and higher low on daily chart. Next full target of a long opportunity could be as high as 1.11223 the primary resistant of this level.
However, before such price movement EURUSD need to break another major resistant which is 1.0850. And another NFP to come at next Friday!
The alternative, a break below 1.0652 would open door to the KEY Support 1.0520.
Scotland legislated for a second independence referendum which would be another alarming event for UK. We believe EU would give a hard punch to UK by harder terms in future deals. And new geopolitical event (Gibraltar) occurs with France. Brexit is now official and it should hurt upcoming economic data.
However, GBPUSD is bullish above 1.2415 and next minor resistant is 1.25696 (high of Feb 24,2017) and 1.26734.
We expect GBPUSD to raise towards the full target and major resistant 1.2794.
A break below 1.23317 would open door downwards 1.1900. Stay focus on upcoming NFP at next Friday.
The position of EURGBP is below the major resistant .86262 after couple of weeks. Next major support is .84019.
However, there is a higher low trendline before support and we closed all of our short positions last Friday. We see a possibility if the price can move towards the resistant.86262 again and signal a bearish price action from there.
AUDUSD failed to break the minor support .76085 last week but we had bearish price action before weekly closing.
This is a critical price before RBA this week. We will short only if we see another bearish candle at Tuesday below .76085 towards the major support .75036. Don’t engage short if the price closed below the .76085 at Monday. That won’t be enough and could be the reason for a fakeout. Make the price to confirm a breakout first.
And another fail attempt to break the support would push the price towards Major resistant .77314. All the best till Tuesday.
Oil surged from the support zone as OPEC and Non-OPEC members seeks for an extended time with the present oil output cut deal!
The situation with oil price would be even worse even If they able to do that unless any deal with US shale corporations.
Any increase in Oil price without an understanding with US shale corporations would be the opportunity for my short positions.
WTI would face the major resistant at $52 and then $54.10.
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