Weekly Forex Fundamental & Trade Setups – January 16th to 20th 2017
Dollar is focused on Trump’s inauguration in next week. Trump’s charm made the dollar bullish for few weeks. Our long term view on Dollar is still bullish. However medium term temper depends on the priority projections of the first 100 days of Trump Administration.
Theresa May’s may be on hard Brexit! Carney could focus on post brexit Inflation and Job data of UK.
We expect no changes from ECB and BOC central banks, however any comments would make the relevant currency volatile during the press conference.
Commodity currencies like AUD and NZD is getting more bullish due to weaker dollar. Retail crowds are net long on AUDUSD. Any positive employment data would drive AUDUSD north.
OPEC leader Saudi Arabia did everything to drag oil price down by historical oil output to bankrupt the US Shale corporations. We are expecting a Payback as they are not bound to OPEC or Non-OPEC output cut deal. And Trump Administration would be blessing for them.
Any highlighted turmoil from OPEC, Non-OPEC or Shale corporations would affect oil this week.
(All charts are from FxPro, your broker might have a little different price)
We had a Bullish Pin bar from Key Support 1.0520 and Next Major Resistant is 1.08247 with a minor resistant 1.07124.
However, in shorter time frame (H4) we see EURUSD need to break the major resistant 1.06513 by a double reaction.
A lot happened last week in Pound. GBPUSD met the Major support 1.20812 by a bullish candle but the next candle was bearish. A hard brexit comments from prime minister Theresa May in weekend would push the pound bearish territory. We expect a market Gap.
Pound need double reaction below 1.20812 to go further downward. We are out from GBPUSD for few weeks. Suggest the same.
EURGBP is in my favorite list for couple of weeks. 0.86262 is severing as Major support now. We expected a Head and Shoulder but unlikely EURGBP will try to find a resistant upper .86262. Previous Major Support .88797 could serve as new Major Resistant. We will only short EURGBP after a double price reaction from .88797 or .86262.
In H4 you can see .88797 would be a great resistant for the rising wage breakout.
Finally GBPJPY brokeout after 2nd false attempt and 138.82 is acting as support. But in larger time frame (Weekly/monthly) 133.473 is the Major support for GBPJPY.
However, we need solid breakout of present Major support 138.821 by 2 daily closing.
AUDUSD is my most suitable currency pair as it is following solid price action setups with less noise. We had a solid 130Pips (A category) long entry from Wednesday. This types of setups are the prime target of our ‘Core Price Action’ strategy. Which never faked in last 25 years! We generally take more risk on such entries as it has no record of going back of 30-60 Pips against the entry.
Anyway, .75036 would server as resistant and a double top. So, we need double price reaction from here. Next Wednesday could be a great day to Long/Short AUDUSD if the daily candle of Monday and Tuesday follow price action.
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