Weekly Core Price Action Trade Forecast and Their Setups; October 30th to November 3, 2017
King Doller Bull roaring and broke the neckline 94.05 of the reverse Head & Shoulder in last Friday. Next major resistant is 99.20 with another minor resistance at 97.60. We are not expecting much changes from November FOMC, CME FedWatch Tool suggests only 1% chance for a hike on November 2 and 97.2% chance in December! US GDP data print was solid, tax reforms are shaped and trump visiting Asia end of this week. US politics should be more stable this week, which could be a plus point for $DXY. Despite everything, market is focusing on the NFP data this week. A decent NFP output should help the dollar rally. Though we’ll be focusing on wage.
Let’s see the chart reading from the technical perspectives.
After 4 weeks of a range market between 1.1837 and 1.1713 EURUSD finally broke below the major support as well as the neckline of a multi-month Head & Shoulder chart pattern. The dovish tone from Draghi helped the recent sell-off, but it was about to happen if technically speaking.
The full target of this H&S is 1.0828 which is the high of February 2, 2017. However, we will capitalize this opportunity and will hold the positions with pyramid style.
Our First target is the major support 1.1466 and then 1.1122 (which is the low of Aug 31, 2016) upon a breakout of 1.1466 and 3rd position once break below 1.1122 towards 1.0828. EURUSD should meet the support before January 2018. We are already holding short after the closing of the last Thursday.
On the other hand, we will be shorting EURJPY by Long PUT via Options. And stay connected with our website as we will be updating the chart if there any significant price action change during the course.
Cable would face a super Thursday with an almost certain rate hike! Pound failed to rise above 1.3267 (high of Aug 03, 2017) and broke the higher low trend line but still above a major support 1.3118.
A simple note that 1.3047 (high of May 18, 2017) acting as a minor support. Market volatility comes from uncertainty a bearish breakout of 1.3047 before Thursday could bring bearish effect during the rate hike session.
Next major support is 1.2794/1.2774. Our Take profit should be above 1.28 if such sell-off opportunity comes.
On the other hand, we will be long from a bullish breakout of major resistance 1.3267 with the target 1.3444 then 1.3835 (upon a breakout of 1.3444).
We advise cautions and proper money management for such high volatility events.
AUDUSD failed to remain above .78338 and having a bearish breakout of .7740 (which is acting as the major resistance for now). We are anticipating a retest of .7740 early this week and our pending sell limit at .7735.
However, we will be shorting the market price if pending order don’t get fill before Wednesday. Profit target would be .7516 (high of May 23, 2017). A multi-year Higher Low trendline is just below of .7504.
A bearish breakout of .7504 and the trendline would be the most significant price action breakout in years! Next support is .7145
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Notice: (All charts from FxPro, if you have a different broker you should update your support and resistance according to the date I mentioned, we do not promote fxpro anyway and we have no business with them, we use popular brokers randomly for our chart.)